Predicting the WFCQ18: EUR 1 & EUR 2
This is part two of four about the upcoming Men’s WFC 2018 Qualifications. In this series of articles I will guide you through the qualifications, game by game in the eye of the Elo-system and in the end predict the qualifying teams. As you may have guessed by now, this has nothing to do with the official IFF World Rankings.
- Part 1: Asia and America
- Part 2: Europe 1 and Europe 2
- Part 3: Europe 3 and Europe 4
- Part 4: Final thoughts
In Europe, each team will play once against each of the other teams in their group. Based on the results from these group matches, a total of 10 teams will qualify according to the following:
– The two best teams from each qualification group will qualify; and
– The the two best 3rd placed teams will qualify.
The calculation of the best 3rd teams will follow this order: 1. Average number of points 2. Average goal difference 3. Average scored goals 4. Lottery drawing*
*Since the number of teams between the qualification groups differs, the group sizes will be equalised by removing the results from the matches against the lowest placed teams in the larger-sized group before comparing the average results.
EUR 1
The first out of four European qualification groups is to be played in Kalevi Spordihall Tallin, Estonia.
This is the teams competing in EUR1, their rank and pre-WFCQ rating. The result from the latest World Cup is also shown.
Predicted results
The Goal Difference (GD) is a prediction based on the rating difference of the teams. A positive value means Team 1 are predicted to win, a negative for Team 2 to win.
This will lead to the following final table:
EUR 2
EUR 2 will be held in Nitra, Slovakia in Arena Klokocina. The same venue that hosted one group in 2016.
This is the teams competing in EUR2, their rank and pre-WFCQ rating. The result from the latest World Cup is also shown.
Predicted matches
The Goal Difference (GD) is a prediction based on the rating difference of the teams. A positive value means Team 1 are predicted to win, a negative for Team 2 to win.
This will lead to the following final table:
Thoughts on the prediction
Both EUR1 and EUR2 contain big favorites in Finland and Sweden. There is no way they won’t finish first in their respective group. Not as exciting as the struggle for second place.
In EUR1 Estonia is the second best team by some margin. Poland have had a couple of weak seasons now, with only a 13th place in WFC16 and a loss against USA in World Games 2017 in Wroclaw, Poland. They could win against Estonia, but the experience from Swedish, Finnish and Swiss leagues in the Estonian roster is one of the things tipping the scale.
In EUR2 on the other hand we are looking forward to one of the most exciting games in all of the qualification groups: Slovakia against Germany. With the fifth place from the Slovakian W’s team in WFC17 still in mind I hope to see more of the same from their men’s team. Slovakia have never won against Germany. Do they have it in them this time? In either case, this game is going to be very important and probably decide which team that finishes on second place.
These are the four teams I recon have the chance to qualify for the WFC.
Belgium was one of the big surprises last year and their young team should be able to finish before their neighbours in the Netherlands, and Liechtenstein as well. The history speaks against this result though, with Belgium winning only three out of eleven games. Recent form however points towards a win for Belgium. Even though the Netherlands and Liechtenstein is almost even in the rankings it will be a small surprise to me if Liechtenstein finishes above.
The bottom half in EUR2 contains of two teams: Slovenia and France. They have never played against eachother before but Slovenia should be considered big favorites as France is one of the lower ranked teams in Europe.
Finland, Estonia, Sweden and Germany will qualify from EUR1 and EUR2 according to the rankings. Poland and Slovakia still have the chance to be one of the two best third placed teams, but will depend on what happens in the EUR3 and EUR4.
Next up: The remaining two groups in Europe
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